Korea forecasts 2026 tax revenue at 479 trillion won on chip boom

The finance ministry said Wednesday it expects national tax revenue to reach 479 trillion won ($352 billion) this year, up 105 trillion won from 374 trillion won in 2025, citing a semiconductor boom, special dividends from chipmakers, a stronger stock market and a recovery in private consumption. The revised forecast is 63.2 trillion won ($46.5 billion) above the 415 trillion won assumed in this year's supplementary budget.

The projection rests on an extraordinary run for South Korea's two largest chipmakers. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are expected to post a combined 638 trillion won ($469 billion) in operating profit this year, up from 91 trillion won in 2025. In the first half alone the two companies reported 147 trillion won ($108 billion) and 98.1 trillion won ($72.1 billion) respectively, well above market forecasts of 79 trillion won and 67.6 trillion won.

That performance has already flowed into corporate tax receipts, which the ministry now puts at 136 trillion won ($100 billion), up 61.2 percent from last year. Income tax revenue is forecast at 152 trillion won ($112 billion), up 22 trillion won, helped by higher wages in the semiconductor and financial sectors, a planned 30 trillion won ($22.1 billion) third-quarter dividend from Samsung Electronics, and increased home transactions. The sharpest percentage gain is expected in securities transaction tax, projected at 12.4 trillion won ($9.12 billion), up 9 trillion won from a year earlier as trading volumes rose. Value-added tax revenue is seen at 89 trillion won ($65.4 billion) and the special tax for rural areas at 20.3 trillion won ($14.9 billion).

Collections were already running ahead of last year through August. Tax revenue for the month came to 55.9 trillion won ($41.1 billion), up 27.7 trillion won from a year earlier, lifting the January-August total to 330 trillion won ($243 billion), or 79.4 percent of the full-year forecast. The ministry said interim corporate tax payments accounted for much of the increase, rising 23.8 trillion won.

The ministry also pointed to changes aimed at making its forecasting more reliable. A tax revenue estimation committee was elevated this year to a government deliberative body with a separate panel of outside advisers, and an artificial intelligence model was introduced for corporate tax projections. An amendment to the National Finance Act made the September re-estimation of annual tax receipts a regular practice.